4A-5P Analysis
Active Model
Tuberculosis Philippines
Data Source
Updated 2026-02-04
Source NTP-DOH, WHO TB Reports 2024-2025, RITM, PhilHealth
Year
Region
Case
AVAIL 40%
ADOPT 37%
AWARE 75%
AFFORD 58%
MIN 37%

Strategic Recommendations

McKinsey 3-Horizon intervention roadmap with budget allocation

Cumulative Impact (All Interventions)
Projected min(A)
37% 74% +37.0pp
Additional Patients Treatable
+41,709,730
AVAIL +57%ADOPT +37%AWARE +33%AFFORD +42%

Horizon 1: Immediate Wins

0-12 months
InterventionTargetExpected ImpactA-ImpactPatientsBN ShiftBudget (M)Stakeholder
Mandatory notification enforcement (NCR focus)AWARENESS+15% case detection in NCR
AWARE +5%
No shift₱50Policymakers + Providers
GeneXpert utilization optimization (40% to 60%)AVAILABLENESS+75K tests/year capacity
AVAIL +20%
No shift₱120Providers + Physicians
Mobile CAD-AI deployment (10 units)AWARENESS + AVAILABLENESS+50K screenings in BARMM/CAR
AWARE +3%AVAIL +2%
No shift₱180Providers + Policymakers
Transport voucher program (Bicol pilot)AFFORDABILITY-15% catastrophic costs
AFFORD +6%
No shift₱85Payors + Policymakers
Stool-based LC-NAAT for childhood TBAWARENESS+38.6% childhood detection
AWARE +4%
No shift₱95Providers + Physicians
Horizon 1 Total₱530 M

Horizon 2: Capability Building

12-24 months
InterventionTargetExpected ImpactA-ImpactPatientsBN ShiftBudget (M)Stakeholder
Med-tech training program (500 techs)ADOPTIONFill GeneXpert staffing gaps
ADOPT +8%
+3,769,861ADOPT → AVAIL₱250Physicians + Policymakers
STRider network standardizationAVAILABLENESS<24hr TAT nationwide
AVAIL +10%
No shift₱320Providers + Policymakers
Primary care facility accreditation (42% to 70%)ADOPTION+1,680 accredited RHUs
ADOPT +12%
+3,769,861ADOPT → AVAIL₱450Providers + Policymakers
PhilHealth benefit package enhancementAFFORDABILITYCover 50% of OOP (vs 14%)
AFFORD +15%
No shift₱800Payors + Policymakers
BPaL regimen nationwide rolloutADOPTION + AFFORDABILITY98% DR-TB success rate
ADOPT +5%AFFORD +3%
+3,769,861ADOPT → AVAIL₱650Physicians + Payors
Horizon 2 Total₱2,470 M

Horizon 3: Transformational Change

24+ months
InterventionTargetExpected ImpactA-ImpactPatientsBN ShiftBudget (M)Stakeholder
AI-integrated national screening networkAWARENESS10-13% population screened annually
AWARE +10%
No shift₱1,200Policymakers + Providers
Comprehensive social protection systemAFFORDABILITY0% catastrophic costs (End TB target)
AFFORD +18%
No shift₱2,500Payors + Policymakers
2,400 RHU expansion (30-min access)AVAILABLENESS + ADOPTIONFull UHC geographic access
AVAIL +25%ADOPT +10%
+11,272,900No shift₱3,800Policymakers + Providers
Private sector integration frameworkAWARENESS100% mandatory notification
AWARE +8%
No shift₱450Policymakers + Providers
Prison TB prevention program (national)AWARENESS + ADOPTIONEliminate congregate setting hotspots
AWARE +3%ADOPT +2%
+2,254,580No shift₱380Policymakers + Physicians
Horizon 3 Total₱8,330 M
Total Investment Required (5-Year Plan) ₱11,330 M